IBC Solar Cell Manufacturing Cost Trajectory: A Bottom-Up Analysis of Industrial Production at Multi-Gigawatt Scale

Abstract

Interdigitated back-contact (IBC) solar cells offer the highest single-junction silicon laboratory efficiencies but have historically faced cost-of-production headwinds versus mainstream PERC and TOPCon platforms. As industrial IBC capacity has expanded into the multi-gigawatt scale during 2023-2025, the cost trajectory of IBC manufacturing has become an increasingly tractable empirical question. This work presents a bottom-up cost model decomposed across wafer, cell-process, capital-depreciation, labor, utility, and yield-loss components, calibrated against publicly disclosed industry data. We analyze the cost-gap closure dynamics versus PERC and TOPCon and assess the residual technical levers most likely to determine whether IBC achieves cost parity or remains a premium-segment technology.